Dynamic spatio-temporal modelling of chytridiomycosis in frogs

Using mathematical epidemiological modelling approaches that are informed by experimental estimates of chytridiomycosis prevalence under different microclimatic conditions.

Project summary

The amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is estimated to have caused the second most species extinctions globally. In this project, we will use mathematical epidemiological modelling approaches that are informed by experimental estimates of chytridiomycosis prevalence under different microclimatic conditions. We will develop a novel spatial transmission model of disease transmission that accounts for the effect of microclimates.

What are we interested in?

Chytridiomycosis is a major driver of global amphibian declines and extinctions. While previous studies have described disease distribution in terms of host environment and climate effects, they do not capture the dynamics of disease transmission or predict how environment and immunity impact disease persistence. Spatial risk predictions are vital for managing this biodiversity crisis.

The goals of our project

To develop mechanistic spatial prediction models that predict host and pathogen population dynamics in response to microclimatic environments; and to transfer established methods from human infectious disease modelling to wildlife diseases.

Outcomes / activities

A method-focused publication of spatial Bd transmission models. The project will also enagage an early career academic, creating  an opportunity for development and involvement in this area of research.